 2008-11-27 - There were some problems with this book
1. The prose was EXTREMELY BLOATED. He took 5 sentences where two would have done just fine. One gets a sense of deja vu here. Ayn Rand is also someone who took at least 3x as much space as she needed to say anything. It is amazing that after all that space, she still didn't have that much to say. Even after all this, it appears that Taleb didn't have that much to say. I guess that you can't use book sales to predict how good/ useful a book will be. (But I guess we already knew that. Look at Danielle Steele.)
2. In continuing with the point about how long winded this book is: Was it really necessary to go on for *34* (!) pages before introducing the thesis of the book?
3. He could have taken some lessons from Malcolm Gladwell in how to pull the book together. (As in, how to take some observations that may not have been too interesting by themselves and connect them in some interesting way that makes a good book.)
4. The book, by rights, was about a 175-200 page book. (Did I mention how annoying it is to have to search through a book for the point?)
Good points:
1. The author really does have some interesting material. The only problem is that the reader has to search through SO MUCH rubbish to be able to find it.
2. There are a few witty quips here. Not many, but a few that had me laughing out loud.
Overall, this is definitely not worth more than a secondhand purchase. And if you are someone that is very judicious in using your time (=not searching through a book for the point), then this is not the book for you.
 2008-11-24 - Connecting esoteric dudes to your life ....
Somebody's connected mathematics and real life! He's done it using the aspiring politician who predicts that her policies will create one million jobs, or the incumbent politician who reads his tea leaves and announces that his policies have created two million new jobs. You, like me, have probably wondered: "In such a big and complicated world, how do they know the impact of their actions with such certainty, and how do they know the future and see the past so clearly?" Well, it turns out that they don't know. Or worse, they actually think they know - but they really don't know. Nassim Taleb tells you specifically how to discern when (and why) experts (and our own thinking) goes wrong. He explores how we think, learn, and reason. In doing so he fills a hug gap in today's public consciousness.
You could easily rename this book "how not to be taken for an intellectual chump by society's big thinkers". While avoiding that chump-fate you come to appreciate Benoit Mandelbrot, Karl Raimond Popper, and Fredrieck Hayak' and you are provided reasons to be skeptical of Carl Freidrick Guass (and the bell curve). Taleb connects these esoteric dudes to your life and to the "opportunities" presented to you in living it. This book is ultimately an essay about mathematical empiricism, philosophy, reason, risk, uncertainty, and real life. But what makes it a great read is that Taleb's writing makes you smile. He actually takes the time to "dis" entire professions (if not individual professionals and intellectuals) on the grounds of intellectual merit. His attitude makes it more fun.
Read this book (twice) if you want to more deeply consider the big challenges of the world (and if you actually want a modest shot at doing the right thing in response to them).
2008-11-23 - The Black Swan
An excellent read during this time of troubled economics. A challenge to those who rely completely on statistical significance in all aspects of life. Thought provoking.
 2008-11-23 - Intriguing and easy to read
Enjoyed Black Swan. It was an easy read and addressed some interesting high concepts around probability theory. The math toward the end of the book likely sent a few things over my head, but I didn't feel anything was purposefully pedantic. As for the main premise, I am not quite sure that today is more extremistan than yesterday - notwithstanding current dysfunction in the capital markets. I do think our expectations for normalcy have been heightened given our current propensity for risk (or lack thereof). So stuff feels much more extreme.
 2008-11-23 - A magnificent philosophy ruined by a premature compilation
First of all, I must say I agree with most of Taleb's philosophy. The book shows the deep understanding of the human epistemology and the overlapping fields, and a certainly proper way to see the uncertain. However, everything is over at this point. His philosophical thoughts could be condensed in a fraction of the book, and Taleb could spare us a lot of digressions, pointless cultural references and dull stories. In addition, the writing style is hard to follow, somewhat boring and bombastic, and not necessarily cultured, and it displays a (maybe exaggeratedly) notorious cockiness. Mandelbrot's popular works (being him one of Taleb's heroes) state many of these ideas, proving other people wrong (or going against them), without being so insulting.
The impression I had, while and after reading the book, is that Taleb's intention (or desire), maybe hidden and unconscious, was aimed at writing a compendium of his thoughts, much like the work of all these philosophers he tells us about through the book (Popper, Hayek, Huet, Montaigne...), capitalizing on his previous best-seller and his reputation as a leading quant-finance professional. But he fails, giving too many distant stories and a lack of structure that does not match the depth of his philosophy. The book ends up being a narration, precisely one of the things the author warns us against (a fact already noted in the preface).
In conclusion, a badly conveyed but great philosophy.
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